Winter’s Smartphone Wars

This Christmas shopping season’s smartphone wars will be for Nokia touchscreen “5800 XpressMusic” smartphone.

Who’s Going To Win smartphone wars of this winter?

Now that Apple (AAPL) has taken the lid off its iPhone 3G S (and its cheaper iPhone 3G), the rosters are pretty much set for this summer’s smartphone wars. Who’s going to come out on top?

Based on what we’ve seen, Apple still has the best platform, with the most impressive hardware, best app store, and new features like video recording and “find my lost phone on a map.” If we had to buy one phone this summer, it’d be the 32 GB iPhone 3G S.

But in the mobile industry, having the best platform is only part of the battle. Distribution is just as important, and since Apple is still only with AT&T, rivals like BlackBerry maker RIM (RIMM) and Palm (PALM) can still sell a lot of gadgets. Because of the $99 iPhone,

Apple will almost certainly sell more iPhones this summer than it did a year ago, and could outsell RIM. But don’t necessarily count out RIM as the overall unit sales winner — its BlackBerry Curve outsold the iPhone last quarter, and it could come close again. And Verizon — now bigger than AT&T — could start shipping some other new BlackBerry devices soon, such as a new Storm or a mystery device that includes both a touchscreen and a full QWERTY keyboard.

Meanwhile,Nokia (NOK) will have a very hard time selling its new N97 in the U.S. for an unsubsidized 700. And while more Google (GOOG) Android phones are on their way, until Android phones are available beyond T-Mobile, they’re going to have a hard time competing in sales.

Apple iPhone 3G. Device cost: $199 (8GB), $299 (16GB). Service: AT&T (U.S.; varies abroad). Service cost: Minimum $70/month in the U.S., plus SMS fees.

The iPhone won’t be the cheapest smartphone in the bunch, but we think it’ll sell the best, especially now that its price has been chopped in half and its international distribution has been expanded. Its app

platform is a winner — more than 100 million apps downloaded so far — and its multimedia player is still the best.

RIM BlackBerry Storm. Device cost: Unannounced; $199 rumored. Service: Verizon Wireless (U.S.), Vodafone (abroad). Service cost: Unannounced; we’re guessing $70-75/month minimum, plus SMS fees.

As rival AT&T has an exclusive deal to sell Apple’s iPhone touchscreen

smartphone one of the main phones they push this holiday season — meaning promotional pricing, lots of advertising, etc. Because the Storm doesn’t have a full keyboard, it might not delight RIM’s enterprise customers. But the

BlackBerry brand is catching on with consumers — 60% of its new customers last quarter — and unless this machine is complete garbage, we think they have a chance to sell a lot., we’re betting Verizon Wireless is going to make RIM’s first

Samsung/Sprint Instinct. Device cost: $129. Service: Sprint Nextel. Service cost: $70-99/month.

Unlike the other phones we’ve mentioned, Sprint’s Instinct doesn’t have much of an app

platform behind it. But it looks like an iPhone, which is apparently enough for some people — it has supposedly sold pretty well, thanks to its low price tag. As long as Sprint keeps promoting it — and not some of its other smartphones, like the Windows Mobile-powered HTC Touch Diamond — it should stay popular, especially with current Sprint subscribers. But we don’t think it’ll do

iPhone numbers.

RIM BlackBerry Bold. Device cost: Unannounced; $299 rumored.

Service: AT&T (U.S.), varies abroad. Service cost: Unannounced; we’re guessing $70-75/month minimum, plus SMS fees.

RIM says their first 3G phone for GSM-based carriers has been selling pretty well where it’s launched, with a 50/50 split between enterprise and consumer buyers. Most indications are that the Bold is a fine phone, but we think AT&T will favor Apple’s iPhone in its stores.

Google/HTC/T-Mobile G1. Device cost: $179. Service: T-Mobile. Service cost: ~$65-75/month.

Google’s first phone is a powerful gadget but lacks some of the elegance and simplicity that makes the

iPhone so special. And if you thought AT&T’s 3G network was limited, stay clear of T-Mobile’s, which will only be available in a couple dozen major cities this year. When the GPhone launches this year, it won’t have nearly the app store that the iPhone will have — few, if any, commercial games, etc. So while we have high hopes for Google’s Android

platform in the future, we think this phone will mostly be for programmers and hard-core Google fans.

Nokia 5800 XpressMusic. Device cost: Subsidized pricing unannounced; $391 unsubsidized; could sell as low as $149 after subsidy. Service: Unannounced; likely AT&T. Service cost: Unannounced; likely $70/month.

We haven’t had a chance to play with Nokia’s new

touchscreen smartphone, but it looks nice, and has the benefit of Nokia’s massive worldwide distribution network. What we’re not sure about: How well popular software on the Symbian OS will work with a

touchscreen for the first time. We’ve also read that the virtual keyboard leaves a lot to be desired. We’re not sure when or where the phone will go on sale in the U.S., but we think it has a decent chance to sell well in Europe, where Nokia has a lot of support.

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